Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 88%
Prognostiker
19
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert5. Jan. 24, 20:45 UTC1. Jan. 41, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Manifold MarketsDid Lyme disease come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after HIV is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
Offene Märkte
Sports
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5,9 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,5 Mio. €
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,6 Mio. €
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Did HIV come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Did HIV come from a laboratory? entschieden?
- Did HIV come from a laboratory? soll am 1. Januar 2041 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Did HIV come from a laboratory? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.