Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 93.8%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet24. Nov. 23, 17:25 UTC1. Jan. 40, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWill the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Manifold MarketsDid HIV come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Lyme disease is no longer a subject of active political contention, and motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down.
- I will be conferring with the community extensivly before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existance of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
Offene Märkte
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 11,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24 Mio. €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.595,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,9 Mio. €
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,1 Mio. €
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 94% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory? entschieden?
- Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory? soll am 1. Januar 2040 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.