Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 81.6%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet27. Dez. 23, 18:36 UTC1. Jan. 27, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsOn January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark
Manifold MarketsDo scaling laws happen because models experience a ton of tiny phase changes which average out to a smooth curve?
Manifold MarketsWill "Physics of RL: Toy scaling laws for the emerg..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Chinchilla presented The Scaling Laws
- [image]I'll not hold more than 10 shares in this market, though may make small token bets once in a while.
