Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 77% (Stand: 26. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? entschieden?

Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2027 entschieden werden.

Wie wird Will "Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31+0.5pt4%
• October 31-0.3pt0%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

67,3 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

202.003,2 €

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 2029+2.0pt23.5%
• Before Jan 1, 202813.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+0.1pt4.7%

POLYMARKET

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

• June 30-8.0pt54%
• December 31-1.5pt10%

Gesamtvolumen

18.540,3 €

24h-Volumen

4202 €

KALSHI

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

• United States-0.7pt56.7%
• China30.4%
• Russia+0.2pt1.9%

KALSHI

How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

• Above 114.5%
• Above 2+1.0pt5%
• Above 70.5%

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+1.0pt89%
• 211%
• 30%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

• Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
• What will the biggest earthquake be on October 26, 2026?
• Is Earth flat?
• What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
• US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
• How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• When will P vs NP be resolved?
• Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
• How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?