Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 76%
Prognostiker
74
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet24. März 23, 01:08 UTC1. Jan. 30, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsMulti year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
For this market to resolve "YES":
- We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 241.307,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 128.006,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 349.424,1 €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 76% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? entschieden?
- Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: For this market to resolve "YES":