Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 80.4%
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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet7. Apr. 26, 11:20 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegeln
Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.
- Reception was mixed.
- This resolves YES iff by EOY, Paolo Cascini marks the problem as settled and credits ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf.
- The point of this market is that betting that your approach works shows that your submission is serious, rewards you iff your approach works, and rewards potential counterparties for investigating your approach.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.085 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 44.371,8 €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 80% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? entschieden?
- Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Przemek Chojecki used a "multi-agent harness" to generate an attempt at a FrontierMath Open Problem.