Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 74.1%
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Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet19. März 26, 02:05 UTC31. Mai 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?
Manifold MarketsWill much AI research be nationalized by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Paolo Cascini accept ulam.ai/research/delpezzo.pdf this year?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRegeln
I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.
- I am on the NO side, Geby is on the YES side.
- I will trade this market, but I will resolve according to the votes of the judges.
- The loser of the bet agrees to pay the winner $1000.
- Resolution criteria: A panel of 3 pre-agreed judges reviews the top 20 AI research papers published in May 2027.
- For each paper, judges assess: "Was the research primarily conducted by giving an AI agent a single high-level research goal (e.g. 'Can narrow finetuning produce broadly misaligned LLMs?'), after which the agent autonomously executed the full pipeline: literature review, hypothesis formation, experiment design, code implementation, running experiments, debugging, analyzing results, and writing up findings, with the human only stepping in to approve, reject, or minimally redirect at natural checkpoints?"
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.085 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 44.371,8 €
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- OpenAI market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 74% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? entschieden?
- Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? soll am 31. Mai 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: I have a $1000 bet with Geby Jaff, founder of Archivara, on this market.