Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 86.9%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Minuten
15. Okt. 26, 03:14 UTC16. Nov. 26, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM Pacific, OpenAI makes a new language model available to the public in ChatGPT, the OpenAI API, or Codex.
- "New" means a model name or version that was not publicly available before this market opened (October 15, 2026).
- For example, a GPT-6.2 model, a new mini/nano or Codex variant with its own name, a new open-weight model, or a successor to Astra.
- Any text or coding model with a new name, including mini, nano, Pro and Codex variants.
- A public preview or a paid-tier-only release, as long as ordinary paying users or API customers can use it.
- New open-weight language models that OpenAI releases publicly.