Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 96.7%
Prognostiker
307
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert11. Juni 24, 16:41 UTC2. Jan. 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Netflix offer a basic subscription tier whose catalogue consists predominantly of AI-generated content by EOY 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill vice.com end up deleting > 50% of their pre-existing online content by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
KalshiWill OpenAI pay compensation to people who their AIs "defame"?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegeln
Will OpenAI make a deal to pay a major science publisher such as Elsevier for explicit access / training rights on their papers, before the end of 2025?
- Closes at end of 2026 to allow for a one-year lag in when we learn about it.
- Resolves YES if such a deal has already taken place.
- Vide this minor difference of guesses between myself (Yudkowsky) and Sabine Hossenfelder.
