Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?
KIOne-Off2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 85.3%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
11. Sept. 26, 22:09 UTC31. Dez. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill the Clay Mathematics Institute formally recognize OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution as correct before 2029?
Manifold Markets[Add answers] Who or what will first solve Navier-Stokes before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill AI solve another Millennium Prize Problem (besides Navier–Stokes) before September 15, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Navier-Stokes problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
prinz (@deredleritt3r) on X
- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM UTC, an open-weights AI model (or an agentic system powered strictly by open-weights models) successfully generates a verified mathematical solution or formalized proof resolving a major open aspect of the Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem, under the following conditions:
- Open Models: The model(s) used must be open-weights, meaning the model weights are publicly downloadable (e.g., hosted on Hugging Face under an open or open-source license) at the time of the breakthrough.
- Compute Cost: The total compute cost required to execute the generation/search/inference run of the proof must be under $1,000 USD.
- This cost is calculated based on commercial API rates or equivalent cloud GPU rental prices (e.g., RunPod, Vast.ai, AWS) at the time of the run.
