Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 79.5%
Prognostiker
59
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet2. Jan. 25, 02:49 UTC1. Jan. 31, 21:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Which release of Linux kernel will have the first Rust-only driver for consumer-grade hardware ?
Manifold MarketsWill Android still use the Linux kernel by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the Linux kernel still be an actively maintained project in 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be able to create a video with this much detail by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
X user @wordgrammer writes:
- Instead of SWE bench.
- OpenAI should just hire a single guy to rewrite the entire Linux kernel from scratch in Rust.
- He can use whatever LLM he wants, but no other humans are allowed to work on the project! Once he succeeds, we have AGI.
- https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/1874414546594754639?t=eiZwpv3ozxMJfameNJZ3vw&s=19
- I actually disagree that this necessarily means AGI, but I think it's a good way to measure progress.
