Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 95.7%
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Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet24. Aug. 26, 00:37 UTC24. Feb. 27, 00:33 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct?
Manifold MarketsWill a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
Tweet thread for context:
- [tweet]For this to resolve YES, the original proof does not need to be perfect.
- It is not uncommon for there to be minor (and easily fixable) mistakes in a long technical proof.
- The key question is whether they are "easily fixable".
- This can resolve NO as soon as the proof is demonstrated to be substantially incorrect and there has been a reasonable enough wait time to ensure that there isn't some "easy fix" to address the issue.
- Otherwise, I plan to resolve this YES if it has been 6 months after market creation and academic consensus appears to believe the proof.
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 210.956,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 110.461,9 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 21.315,2 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5178,9 €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 96% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? entschieden?
- Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? soll am 24. Februar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Levent's proof that S^6 admits a complex structure hold up? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Tweet thread for context: