Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 02:41 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 81%
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet24. Feb. 24, 01:11 UTC2. Jan. 00, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Israel still exist at the beginning of 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)
Manifold MarketsWill Alphabet Inc. (Google) or Microsoft or Apple will still exist by 2100
Manifold MarketsWill Wikipedia still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves NO if at any point between now and 2100 Israel doesn't exist.
- Successor states count.
- I will resolve NO if it loses more than 50% of its Jewish population to emigration or expulsion within a 10-year window, e.g. if it's invaded by a neighboring country and left officially intact, but is no longer serving its intended purpose.
