Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?
CommoditiesGeopolitikOne-OffMiddle EastTechnik1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 89.7%
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binary
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Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet13. Mai 26, 16:08 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
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KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a consensus of major intelligence agencies (such as the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence) officially confirms that Iran has successfully produced, tested, or acquired a fully functional nuclear weapon on or before December 31, 2027.
- If no such confirmation is made by this date, or if international authorities determine that Iran has not achieved this capability, the market resolves to NO.
- In the event of conflicting official reports, the market will resolve based on the assessment provided by the IAEA.
- Iran’s nuclear program has been a subject of intense international scrutiny for decades.
- Since the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has progressively increased its uranium enrichment levels.
Offene Märkte
CommoditiesKALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.175099%
- Above 4.160099%
- Above 4.170099%
+26 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 395.833,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 395.623,1 €
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.900099%
+44 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 198.315,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 198.226,4 €
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIOhio gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.900099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+44 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 78.470,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 78.470,8 €
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1400+25.0pt99%
- Above 4.1200+10.0pt99%
- Above 4.0800+5.0pt99%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 90% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? entschieden?
- Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria