Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 92.3%
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
VerzogertTrends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we find a way to live forever, i.e. reverse aging and achieve biological immortality by 2046?
Manifold MarketsDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold Markets10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsDo short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?
Manifold MarketsWas Covid-19 an intentional bioweapon release?
Manifold MarketsCovid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This question resolves YES if, at some time in the next few millenia, I am extremely confident to be immortal: (1) won't expect to die, and (2) won't expect entropy to be an issue in 10**100 years, etc.
- Quantum immortality doesn't count.
- Update 2026-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): On the definition of "I" (identity) for resolution:
- No requirement for physical continuity or continuity of experience/psychology
- Continuity of values and memories and smoothness of self are important
