Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 71.6% (Stand: 27. Oktober 2026).

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

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4. Mai 24, 18:39 UTC2. Jan. 29, 07:59 UTC

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The Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) is the standard neural network design in modern deep learning.

If a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model is confirmed to be created without the use of MLPs by 2029, this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.
Qualifying models
To qualify, a model must not use Multi-Layer Perceptrons at all.
For the purposes of this market, an MLP is a series of 3 or more layers of nodes, where the nodes in each middle layer take a weighted sum of the outputs of the previous layer, apply a nonlinearity, and output the result.
One example of a non-MLP neural network design is Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (see this market, which this one is heavily based on).