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Veraltet7. Apr. 26, 22:09 UTC1. Jan. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsWill the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if among frontier AI models released in 2027, a majority used FP8 as their primary pretraining precision.
- Frontier models = flagship from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, xAI, Mistral.
- FP8 means majority of compute in FP8 not BF16/FP16/FP32.
- Mixed precision where FP8 dominates counts.
- Post-training quantization does NOT count.
- Based on official reports or credible reporting.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 59% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? entschieden?
- Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? soll am 1. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if among frontier AI models released in 2027, a majority used FP8 as their primary pretraining precision.