Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 70.5%
Prognostiker
39
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert22. Apr. 23, 04:22 UTC1. Jan. 30, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?
KalshiThe FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve Viagra as a treatment for Alzheimer's before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI that diagnoses patients better than an average doctor prior to 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
KalshiWill the FDA approve retatrutide?
KalshiRegeln
Capabilities: take history, create treatment plan, prescribe medications, order tests, etc. all without human intervention or approval.
- Covers >50% of typical primary care volume.
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 71% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? entschieden?
- Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Capabilities: take history, create treatment plan, prescribe medications, order tests, etc. all without human intervention or approval.