Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
One-OffKI4JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 80%
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Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet29. März 25, 20:45 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsWill a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiRegeln
https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax
- This is obviously a very ambiguous and subjective question, I'd rather have an imperfect market than none
- Close date extends indefinitely until the answer to this is clear.
- "Central" is a high bar.
- Example: Inventing a better interpretability tool or a better method of reinforcement learning isn't enough to resolve this market YES, even if they're genuinely better than the alternatives and everyone adopts them.
- The most central YES resolution is is if their "organic alignment" works and is adopted by everyone, but it being a part of a future widely adopted alignment solution, or being widely accepted by AI safety as an important alignment innovation but not used, would work too.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 80% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? entschieden?
- Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax