Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman
KIOne-OffUnterhaltung7MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 55.4%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
8. Sept. 26, 17:47 UTC22. Apr. 27, 00:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsMovie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiRegeln
Examples of what would result in a YES resolution
- there's a guy credited as playing Yudkowsky in the credits
- there's a guy wearing some famous Yudkowsky outfit and hair/facial hair style where I think the intent was that the character was meant to be Yudkowsky
- the real Yudkowsky himself is in the movie as an actor or in the backround somewhere in a scene
- an in-universe photo of Yudkowsky or video footage of Yudkowsky is on screen at some point
- a recording of Yudkowsky's real voice is heard saying something at any point
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 55% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman entschieden?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman soll am 22. April 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Examples of what would result in a YES resolution