Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?
PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlGeopolitikKriminalität & Justiz2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 62%
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Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet28. Jan. 26, 18:09 UTC31. Jan. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by January 20, 2029, credible evidence demonstrates that one or more members of the Trump administration (including cabinet officials, senior advisors, or other executive branch personnel) attempted an organized, illegal or extra-legal action to:
- Seize or retain executive power beyond the constitutional term limit
- Displace the authority of Congress or the judiciary
- Prevent a lawful transfer of power or election certification
- The attempt must meet the Cline Center's definition of a coup attempt: an organized effort using illegal or irregular means that poses a credible threat to the authority of a policy-making branch of government.
