Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 59.6%
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Verzogert11. März 26, 01:56 UTC20. Jan. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Trump incarcerate or institutionalize trans people just for being trans?
Manifold MarketsWill elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
Manifold Markets🏳️⚧️ What will happen to trans people in Kansas as a result of the newly passed bounty hunter bill? (Add your answers)
Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiRegeln
Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Rhetoric or threats alone do not count
- Any actual legislation that would make it harder for trans people to purchase firearms will resolve YES, regardless of whether it has a real effect or holds up in court
- Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Executive Orders (EOs) count as an attempt by the administration and would resolve YES
- ATF form changes (e.g. changes to form 4473) are less clear-cut; resolution may depend on whether there is a de facto change in access and/or whether the administration supports prosecutions or purchase denials based on trans status
- Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - ATF actions (e.g. changes to form 4473) may count if there is collaboration with or broader support from the Trump administration
- De facto access change or administration support for prosecutions/purchase denials will be considered in ambiguous ATF cases
