Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 83.8%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 36 Minuten
12. März 23, 03:14 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsChamath prediction: Will David Sacks run for governor of California by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill David Sacks ever be elected President?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Anything highly credible, such as findings of fraud with SBF.
- Doesn't need to be legally charged, but that's a bonus.
