Will cold showers be shown to be an effective treatment for depression by 2030
One-OffGesundheit & MedizinWissenschaft2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 21:13 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 82%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet25. März 24, 04:33 UTC31. Dez. 28, 12:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?
Manifold MarketsBumetanide considered effective in the treatment of genetic Alzheimer's by the end of 2026?
FutuurHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves positively if, by my estimation, there is convincing evidence that cold showers are an effective treatment for depression by 2030.
- There is currently some evidence- theoretical and empirical- for an effect, but there is a paucity of large studies specifically on the effect of showers on depression.
- I will consider the effect of cold showers demonstrated if there are at least two peer-reviewed experimental studies random allocation to conditions showing a statistically significant (or Bayesian equivalent) effect on depression which is, in my view, large enough to be clinically significant.
- Especially given the low cost of the treatment, the bar to being considered clinically significant is not especially high- for example, if 30% of participants fell below the cutoff for depression in the treatment condition, and only 20% in the control condition, I would consider that clinically significant.
- Although multiple controlled studies in a peer-reviewed journal are the most likely route to a positive resolution, I might accept other evidence at my discretion- for example, a single study large and rigorous enough that I consider it decisive on its own.
- I will not bet in this market.
