Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.7%
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6
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet3. Feb. 26, 00:45 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsWill "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Benchmark is here: https://scale.com/leaderboard/scipredict.
- It tests models' ability to predict the results of scientific experiments.
- As of writing, current SOTA is Gemini 3 Pro's 25.27%.
