Will China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Russia become a democracy first?
KI
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 03:00 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Russia 33.3%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Russia 33.3%Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet8. Juli 24, 16:56 UTC31. Dez. 49, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In case of a war with Iran before 2050, will Saudi Arabia runs out of water for its population?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a so-called "nuclear Saudi Arabia" by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Saudi Arabia with more than 100 000 deaths before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia ever become a democracy?
Manifold MarketsHouthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
PolymarketRegeln
As classified by their polity score or V-DEM score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-Dem_Democracy_Indices
- Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If both Polity score and V-DEM score are discontinued, the creator will update the market to use other democracy scores for resolution.
