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Ja 83.3%
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19
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert30. Aug. 26, 18:29 UTC31. März 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1.
- Claude Fable's benchmark scores are mostly above the level predicted for Agent 1 in AI 2027 (outscoring the projections for OS World and Cybench, with Mythos Preview scoring similarly to the projected METR 80% time horizon, though somewhat below).
- This market seeks to track if a model of approximately Agent 1 mini capabilities is released around the time AI 2027 projected.
- This market will resolve YES if any AI is released that scores at least as well as Claude Fable 5 on at least 8 out of 10 of the following benchmarks, and whose output tokens are at least 10x cheaper than Claude Fable 5's, by the end of March 2027.
- The model must be released by the end of March to the public, but resolution may happen later due to the benchmarks being run later.
- Resolution sources are included with each benchmark, though these are subject to change for now
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027? entschieden?
- Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027? soll am 31. März 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1.