Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 62.7%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Minuten
6. Apr. 26, 01:19 UTC6. Apr. 30, 01:18 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWill the next Russian Presidential election take place in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place?
PolymarketWhere will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?
PolymarketWhen will the next UK general election take place?
Manifold MarketsWill an F1 Grand Prix race take place in Abu Dhabi before December 7, 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- The market will resolve to "Yes" if the next novel published by Andy Weir contains a setting primarily located in outer space (e.g., aboard a spacecraft, on a planet other than Earth, or a space station).
- It will resolve to "No" if the narrative is set primarily on Earth.
- Resolution will be based on the official plot summary, author confirmation, or the published content of the book upon release.
- The market will resolve once the book is officially published or a definitive plot synopsis is released by the publisher or author via their official website (https://andyweirauthor.com/) or a major news outlet.
- Andy Weir, known for his hard science fiction, has confirmed in interviews (as of March 2026) that he is currently writing a new standalone science fiction novel.