Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 83%
Prognostiker
19
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet21. Dez. 23, 15:29 UTC2. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsChina will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Japan prevent AI training on copyrighted data before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.
- I don't have a particular compute cap in mind, as long as the agreement looks something like "no models larger than GPT-n" where n is the largest GPT in existence by the time the pause takes effect.
- Not every nation needs to be involved, but at a bare minimum it must include the US, China, and the UK.
- The only condition on the agreement I'll require for a YES resolution is some sort of bare minimum enforcement or inspection mechanism, so that mere pledges from nations not to train large models will not count.
Offene Märkte
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 35,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.050,2 €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 11,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 38.741,3 €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 356.323,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 13.462,8 €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 11.045,3 €
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? entschieden?
- Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? soll am 2. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if an international agreement is in effect where almost every nation capable of the largest training runs has agreed not to train a new generation of large models.