Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 81.3%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet15. Juli 26, 20:56 UTC1. Feb. 28, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post An analysis of AI-generated content at the Mechanistic Interpretability Workshop is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 81% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.