Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 06:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 91.9%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet25. Okt. 24, 23:02 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketSydney Sweeney confirmed converted to Judaism in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.
- The market resolves YES if he converts to Christianity in a meaningful way, ie if the average person would look at his actions and would describe him as having converted to christianity.
- Resolves NO in 2027 otherwise.
