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Verzogert6. Apr. 24, 16:47 UTC2. Jan. 30, 05:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI out-wipe humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if, by January 1st, 2030, there exists widely available technology that uses AI for the purpose of cleaning humans' anuses after defecation.
- This does not strictly have to be done by "wiping"; for example, a bidet-like technology would work, as long as it involves a technology widely agreed to be AI.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI wipe humanity by 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 90% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI wipe humanity by 2030? entschieden?
- Will AI wipe humanity by 2030? soll am 2. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI wipe humanity by 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if, by January 1st, 2030, there exists widely available technology that uses AI for the purpose of cleaning humans' anuses after defecation.