Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 65%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Minuten
25. Dez. 24, 06:11 UTC1. Jan. 75, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Al take 25% of human jobs before 2075?
Manifold MarketsWill AI take 50% of human jobs before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI take 50% of human jobs before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill AI take 50% of human jobs before 2050?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution Criteria:
- The question will resolve to YES if at least one of the following occurs:
- The broader unemployment rate (U-6) reaches 50% or higher
- The labor force participation rate drops by 50% or more from its 2024 baseline of 62.5%.
- In this context the LFPR should fall to 31.3% or lower.
- This question is concerned with lost jobs and not the number of hours worked per week.
