Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 89.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet1. Nov. 25, 14:40 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be any scientific discovery in 2026 that will increase penis size?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.
- If after a week any disagree this question will resolve NO.
- Otherwise, it will resolve YES.
- If any of the users is unreachable, they will not be taken into account for the resolution.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 89% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? entschieden?
- Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has.