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3. März 24, 23:11 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the Magic: The Gathering "culturally insensitive cards" be reprinted or unbanned by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Lego or Bionicle crossover with Magic the Gathering by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves to Yes if an AI has the strength to beat world champions in Magic the Gathering before the end of 2026
- If AI were able to beat the world champion in any one of the major format, Draft, Constructed or Sealed, it would count as a resolve Yes.
- The AI doesnt have to actually be participating in the world championship (it likely would not), but as long as the AI demonstrated consistent strength in beating current world champion in repeated games (70% win rate with 10+ games played) that would count as a Yes.
- AI doesn't necessarily have to beat the current world champion.
- Beating any of the top 20 in the world within past 3 years is sufficient.
- The goal is to demonstrate that the AI has the strength to likely win against the world champion.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 95% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026? entschieden?
- Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves to Yes if an AI has the strength to beat world champions in Magic the Gathering before the end of 2026