Will a sitting US Supreme Court justice resign or die in office before 2027?
PolitikOne-OffUS-Politik2Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 86.7%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet21. Juli 26, 02:22 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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FutuurRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any sitting justice of the Supreme Court of the United States dies or officially vacates their seat (via retirement or resignation) on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET).
- The market will resolve to NO if all nine current sitting justices remain in active office through the end of 2026.
- Key Definitions and Rules:
- Sitting Justices: The current nine justices are John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson.
- Resignation / Retirement: A justice must formally vacate their seat on or before the deadline.
