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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet29. Dez. 22, 09:32 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the first quantum computer to factor two 2048-bit RSA moduli do so in under a minute?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.
- Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?
- Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.
- Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether a quantum computer factors a number greater than 31 by the end of 2026 (not before 2026 begins).
