Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 52 Minuten
Verzogert16. Juli 26, 01:51 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketWill any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Market title abbreviated for character limit; the full operative title and all binding definitions are in this description.
- Audit Motion 002
- Will at least one frontier AI company publish recurring organizational governance metrics alongside capability benchmarks, in a single document, on or before 31 December 2026?
- Research Thesis
- This prediction tests whether frontier AI governance will evolve from policy disclosure toward performance disclosure.
- Frontier AI companies now routinely publish governance frameworks, responsible scaling policies, and regulatory compliance documents.
