Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.8%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet18. März 26, 15:46 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
Manifold MarketsWill advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a high-street retail outlet successfully running with only robotic and AI systems, for at least a week without intervention from a physically-present person, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country enacts a law that explicitly bans the development, deployment, or use of "advanced AI systems" before January 1, 2027.
- The ban must be a binding legal prohibition, not merely regulatory restrictions, licensing requirements, or risk-based compliance frameworks.
- For resolution purposes:
- "Advanced AI systems" refers to frontier or general-purpose AI models with significant capabilities (e.g., systems comparable to GPT-4 or similar large language models)
- The ban must apply to the entire country or a substantial portion of its territory
