Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.8%
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Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert18. März 26, 15:46 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
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KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country enacts a law that explicitly bans the development, deployment, or use of "advanced AI systems" before January 1, 2027.
- The ban must be a binding legal prohibition, not merely regulatory restrictions, licensing requirements, or risk-based compliance frameworks.
- For resolution purposes:
- "Advanced AI systems" refers to frontier or general-purpose AI models with significant capabilities (e.g., systems comparable to GPT-4 or similar large language models)
- The ban must apply to the entire country or a substantial portion of its territory
Offene Märkte
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 248.725,9 €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 96.559,7 €
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
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- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027? entschieden?
- Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria