Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseOther 32.2%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
25
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert9. Apr. 26, 20:18 UTC31. Dez. 30, 21:24 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.
- If Satoshi is revealed to be a collaboration between multiple people, it resolves roughly to the best estimate of the % that each are responsible for Satoshi's identity.
- I will also defer to consensus reporting, the Wikipedia page, etc. For example, if the Wiki page decisively lists one individual as Satoshi Nakamoto, that would likely be sufficient to resolve, and if the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, and Guardian all put out articles saying that the drama is over and Satoshi's identity has been conclusively revealed (as the same person), that would also probably be sufficient to resolve.
- Market will be extended indefinitely until more definitive evidence emerges.
- I think there are reasons to believe that AI will be able to unearth convincing evidence within a few years, but I ultimately don't have a horse in this race.
- I've only loosely followed the drama.
