Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Führend unter 51 Optionen
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Prognostiker
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Veraltet1. Jan. 25, 23:47 UTC1. Jan. 01, 07:59 UTC
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When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
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Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat me in a game of chess by the end of 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiRegeln
Which of these models will beat me at chess once released? Resolves YES if they win, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- I'm rated about 1900 FIDE.
- When each of these models are released, I'll play a game of chess with them.
- On each move, I'll provide them with the game state in PGN and FEN notation.
- If the models make three illegal moves, they lose.
- Responses like Nbd2 vs. Nd2 will not count towards this.
