Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2030 81.9%Führend unter 7 Optionen
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41
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+4.6 pts
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Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet11. Aug. 24, 16:42 UTC1. Feb. 31, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.
- Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- On which years will I win?
- Some more details: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF.
- The game will be played at a rapid time control.
- I’ll select the LLM from the top 3 of the leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), or another benchmark if I believe it to be a better measure of general reasoning capabilities.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2030 mit 82% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? entschieden?
- When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? soll am 1. Februar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.