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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsChess.com Woman Player of the Year Winner
KalshiChess.com Player of the Year Winner
KalshiNext Prime Minister of Romania?
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The LLM must not be trained to play adversarially.
- I am going with an academic definition of LLM (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_language_model)
- All meaningful computation must be done on the network, thus Monte Carlo Search is disallow, but recurrent nets are allowed
- Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An LLM that acts as an agent that uses tools or writes its own algorithm for depth search will not count towards a YES resolution.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 78% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028? entschieden?
- Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028? soll am 31. Dezember 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will an LLM beat a Super GM Bot on chess.com by 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The LLM must not be trained to play adversarially.