Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 71%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 49 Minuten
Verzogert3. Okt. 25, 20:17 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
By 2028 will an assisted LLM beat the Ender Dragon?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market resolves to YES if I lose a game of chess against an LLM by December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
- Only games played with standard chess rules count (not 960, crazyhouse, etc.).
- If the LLM makes an illegal move, it loses automatically.
- The LLM must not have any outside assistance.
- Only games where I am seriously trying to win count, though it would count if I lose due to playing too fast, not paying attention, etc. I won't bet in this market.
- I'm a National Master (~2000 FIDE).
