Manifold MarketsGeschlossenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: Opus (99%)
Entschieden: 24.07.2026, 17:03
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseOpus 99%+7.1ptFührend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 27 Tagen
Veraltet3. Juli 26, 4:3224. Juli 26, 17:03
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Opus99%
Haiku0.4%
Mythos0.2%
A previously unreleased tier under a new name0.2%
A new checkpoint of Fable or Sonnet with updated version number (e.g. 5.1)0.2%
99%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Regeln
— The model must be released publicly to qualify, i.e. if Opus 5 gets a limited release (similar to what's been going on with Mythos and GPT-5.6) followed by a GA release of Haiku, the latter will be considered as having been released first.
- — The existing version(s) of Mythos will qualify if released into general access before any other qualifying model.
- — Any 4.x versions, in case Anthropic decides to continue that branch for some reason, will not qualify.
- The most recent release as of this market's creation date is Sonnet 5, which is the third release in the Claude 5 series following Mythos 5 and Fable 5.
