Aktuelle Community-Prognose
2035 or earlier 40.2%Führend unter 6 Optionen
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7
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet3. Juli 24, 23:14 UTC31. Dez. 35, 12:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip
KalshiWill Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessRegeln
Virgin Galactic recently retired their SpaceShipTwo vehicle in order to develop their new Delta-class of vehicles - a similar spacecraft derived from SpaceShipTwo but designed to have a higher capacity (6 passengers instead of 4) and to be much easier to reuse
- They're currently aiming for a maiden flight in 2026
- Resolution criteria
- For the flight to count, the Delta-class ship must reach an altitude of >70km and safely land with at least one human on board
- A Delta-class ship is any more advanced ship derived from SpaceShipTwo
- (It does not necessarily need to be referred to as a 'Delta' ship to count)
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.5pt89.9%
- OpenAI-1.6pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 131.460,9 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No60.4%
- Yes39.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 103.607,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 27.913,7 €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-1.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+2.0pt18.6%
- Google-1.4pt5.9%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-8.0pt82%
- Above 9-49.0pt22%
- Above 10-20.0pt14%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,47%
- June 30,41%
- February 28,27%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 996.112,6 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.3pt59.6%
- SpaceX+0.5pt38.4%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Performers
- SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
- Two SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
- What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in September 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >70km??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2035 or earlier mit 40% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >70km? entschieden?
- When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >70km? soll am 31. Dezember 2035 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >70km? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Virgin Galactic recently retired their SpaceShipTwo vehicle in order to develop their new Delta-class of vehicles - a similar spacecraft derived from SpaceShipTwo but designed to have a higher capacity (6 passengers instead of 4) and to be much easier to reuse