Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2027 34.7%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
60
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet22. Mai 25, 18:07 UTC1. Jan. 35, 19:03 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the next French presidential elections (2027) take place without any major democratic problems because of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
PolymarketBen Pasternak jailed?
PolymarketPoland: Will Zbigniew Ziobro be jailed by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
A year resolves positively if someone is incarcerated because they were snitched on by an AI that was their AI assistant, in that year.
- All subsequent years resolve No. As in, an agent autonomously, deliberately telling authorities or others about something the user did or is planning to do, in a way that leads to that user's arrest
- [image]Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator acknowledges that information from AI system cards (such as the one shared for Claude 4, detailing AI behaviors or reporting protocols) is relevant for interpreting the market's resolution criteria, especially regarding an AI autonomously and deliberately snitching.
- This aspect was unintentionally omitted from the original description.
- Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - It is considered snitching if the AI assistant is instructed in its underlying prompt (e.g., by its developers) to flag suspicious individuals for review and then does so.
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2027 mit 35% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? entschieden?
- When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? soll am 1. Januar 2035 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: A year resolves positively if someone is incarcerated because they were snitched on by an AI that was their AI assistant, in that year.