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By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
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PolymarketRegeln
When will any publicly available consumer AI assistant (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc) be able to look up a public domain book of reasonable length (~100k words) and read it (all of it) aloud to me in one shot.
- A few clarifications:
- Multiple options can resolve yes
- This applies to assistants where you don’t self-host models on your own GPUs
- It should be able to do this after a single request from the user, without requiring repeated prompts (feel free to prompt engineer that starting prompt as much as you'd like).
- In other words, the audio it plays should be like what would happen if you pressed play at the start of an audiobook
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will consumer AI be able to read me a book?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before Jan 1, 2029 mit 50% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will consumer AI be able to read me a book entschieden?
- When will consumer AI be able to read me a book soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will consumer AI be able to read me a book abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: When will any publicly available consumer AI assistant (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc) be able to look up a public domain book of reasonable length (~100k words) and read it (all of it) aloud to me in one shot.