By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

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Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 88.9% (Stand: 26. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) entschieden?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.

Wie wird By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) abgerechnet?

Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+11.5pt94%
• December 15,+11.0pt93%
• November 30,+25.0pt89%

+15 weitere Ergebnisse

Gesamtvolumen

5,2 Mio. €

24h-Volumen

311.190,8 €

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+4.0pt96.5%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+8.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+6.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T30.8%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.6pt20.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.8pt17.3%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+1.3pt56.8%
• Gemini+2.0pt32.4%
• ChatGPT-0.4pt

KALSHI

What will Bernie say during his town hall in Michigan?

• Immigrant / Immigration-19.0pt0.5%
• Student Loan / Student Debt0.5%
• Tuition (2+ times)-52.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+2.5pt86.9%
• Anthropic-3.3pt10.1%
• Meta+0.1pt1%

+18 weitere Ergebnisse

• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Best AI this week
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) in Oct 26, 2026