Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
2029- 60%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet24. Feb. 24, 14:21 UTC31. Dez. 28, 15:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?
Manifold MarketsBy when will there be an unresupplied crewed spacecraft flight longer than 150 days?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRegeln
The Lanyue is the Chinese crewed lunar lander.
- Resolves YES if a taikonaut enters (or is already inside) a Lanyue that is above the Karman Line.
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 103.065,4 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57.371,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 57.371,5 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 817.857 €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2029- mit 60% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue? entschieden?
- When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue? soll am 31. Dezember 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The Lanyue is the Chinese crewed lunar lander.